FIFA—Not US Economy—Is Big World Cup Winner So Far

With only four World Cup games left, it looks increasingly unlikely that a big influx of international tourists will deliver an economic heyday for the US, sports economists tell Forbes. Key factsWhile the World Cup group stage (June 11-27) was taking place, overall international arrivals to the US in June were essentially flat (+0.2%) compared to a year ago, according to data from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) in the Commerce Department.Arrivals in June were down year over year from Europe (-1.2%) and Asia (-5.6%), two regions that consistently dominate overseas arrivals, while arrivals were up from lower-volume regions: Africa (+13.8%) and South America (+4.7%), according to NTTO data.Hotels in World Cup host cities raised room rates, but did not see an increase in occupancy or room demand, according to CoStar, the industry benchmarking and analytics firm.A FIFA analysis predicted the World Cup would inject $30.5 billion into the US economy—but its calculation counted on a huge influx of international fans, who spend much more per person than U.S.-based fans.FIFA is set to take in $9 billion in revenue, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.Crucial quoteDiscussions about economic impact in sports “follow a very similar pattern, and it’s almost always used to justify a transfer of public spending to benefit private entities,” Michael Edwards, professor of sports management at North Carolina State University, told Forbes.Fewer international fans came than were promisedNobody doubts the US will see some benefit to hosting the World Cup, but the economic upside is now looking much smaller than what the sport’s global governing body projected. “FIFA plays a PR game with all of these numbers,” Andrew Zimbalist, professor emeritus of economics at Smith College, told Forbes. “It was never reasonable that there would be a $30.5 billion gain to the US economy.” Part of FIFA’s pitch to World Cup host cities was the promise of huge crowds with a 50/50 split between domestic and international visitors, officials at three host city organizing committees told Forbes. Destinations prize international visitors because they stay longer and outspend domestic visitors, but the US is facing headwinds in attracting foreign tourists. As US Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman noted at the 2026 Americas Lodging Investment Summit in January, the US was “the only major nation in the world to see a decline in travel” in 2025. That’s “because of generalized revulsion against Trump’s tariffs and his international policy. That’s not a partisan statement. It’s simply a reality,” Zimbalist told Forbes. With the NTTO data showing no significant influx of international visitation in June, “it’s hard to look at the absolute data and draw the conclusion that this tournament was a tremendous boon for international inbound,” Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality market analytics at CoStar, told Forbes.Pattern of overpromise, underdeliverThe economic payoff from hosting a huge sports event often fails to materialize, according to sports tourism experts. Some blame lies with local leaders who get seduced by the idea of hosting marquee events. “We’ve gone away from bonds where citizens get to vote on whether they want to spend their tax money on a stadium,” Edwards told Forbes. “Now politicians are making that decision behind closed doors, and then they’ve got to sell this to constituents. Economic impact becomes the way they do it.” Projections tend to be overly optimistic because they fail to factor in trade-offs. “What happens with these events is that you get sports fans—in this case, soccer fans—coming to the event who otherwise wouldn’t be here, but then there will be a lot of normal tourists who decide to stay away because the World Cup will create a lot of congestion, higher prices and heightened security issues.” Zimbalist said. Stadiums and city streets filled with national colors make for great TV, “but one of the key takeaways for my students is visibility does not equate to economic impact,” Edwards said.How much did World Cup host cities pony up?“FIFA’s model is FIFA gets the revenue, and host cities bear the costs and the risks,” Edwards said. Each of the 16 World Cup host cities in North America—11 in the US, three in Mexico, two in Canada—had to invest between $100 million and $200 million in infrastructure, transportation and security, according to an analysis from North Carolina State University. But that’s just the beginning. FIFA also required host cities to shield it from municipal taxes and to pursue exemptions from applicable state taxes where possible, as spelled out in Kansas City’s host contract. Where taxes could not legally be waived, host cities often agreed to reimburse or indemnify FIFA for those tax costs. Three states—Florida, Georgia and Missouri—waived at least $57.8 million in combined state and local tax revenue to host games for the World Cup, the New York Times reported last month.Would-be World Cup host cities that opted outSome US cities determined the cost of hosting World Cup games was too high. Chicago withdrew from bidding in 2018 after then-mayor Rahm Emanuel concluded FIFA could not offer the necessary assurances to protect local taxpayers from financial liability, the Chicago Sun-Times reported. Las Vegas had considered bidding but ran into a logistical dealbreaker. “The main reason we don’t have World Cup in Las Vegas is that the pitch for World Cup games doesn’t fit inside Allegiant Stadium,” Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, told Forbes. “The field tray that rolls in and out is smaller than the [FIFA regulation] pitch, and there isn’t any leeway in adjusting that” without incurring an enormous cost. Instead, Sin City pivoted to host 10,000 watch parties over the course of the tournament. Other US cities, like Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Nashville and Chattanooga in Tennessee, 3became base camps for national teams, offering a different kind of fan experience.What we don’t knowIf an influx of international tourists materializes for the World Cup in July. Historically, enthusiasm builds as the World Cup enters the knockout stage, which began on June 28. “We also don’t know if the people who came in July are indeed the ones that FIFA wanted to come all along,” Freitag told Forbes, referring to affluent international soccer fans who could afford FIFA’s eye-popping ticket prices. “Is it possible that we’re substituting an average international traveler in 2025 with a high-paying international traveler this year? We don’t know.”